Iowa Wild at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Iowa Wild

1:2

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

IAMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

18%82%

xG: 2.12.6
High danger: 04
Chances: 57
Shots: 3330

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal30

5Scoring chances7

0High-danger chances4

2.14Expected goals2.62

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–16	1–4	0–2	0.5–1.3
2nd	13–10	3–3	0–2	1.1–1.2
3rd	10–4	1–0	0–0	0.5–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.14
GSAx: +1.14

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.62
GSAx: +0.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:44Penalty
1st 10:44Penalty
1st 11:56Penalty
2nd 3:40Penalty
2nd 4:04Ben Jones (1–0)4v5 · low · 29 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 5:14Penalty
2nd 8:47Penalty
2nd 9:05Isaac Ratcliffe (1–1)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 11:53Isaac Ratcliffe (1–2)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 12:29Penalty
2nd 18:45Penalty
2nd 18:45Penalty
3rd 14:53Penalty