Rockford IceHogs at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Rockford IceHogs

2:4

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

RFDCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 2.43.4
High danger: 47
Chances: 812
Shots: 2940

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 62% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal40

8Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances7

2.37Expected goals3.39

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–15	4–6	4–3	1.0–1.4
2nd	10–11	2–3	0–1	0.7–0.9
3rd	10–14	2–3	0–3	0.7–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Adam Gajan

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 36
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.39
GSAx: -0.61

Pyotr Kochetkov

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.70
GSAx: +0.70

Amir Miftakhov

Shots faced: 10
Saves: 9
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.67
GSAx: -0.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:23Ryan Gagnier (1–0)high · 10 ft · beat Pyotr Kochetkov
1st 15:34Gleb Trikozov (1–1)low · 28 ft · beat Adam Gajan
2nd 2:15Gleb Trikozov (1–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Adam Gajan
2nd 16:04Penalty
2nd 19:55Penalty
3rd 4:49Noah Philp (1–3)low · 40 ft · beat Adam Gajan
3rd 9:28Penalty
3rd 11:15Dmitry Kuzmin (2–3)5v4 · medium · 16 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
3rd 18:37Felix Unger Sörum (2–4)empty net · low · 53 ft · beat Adam Gajan