Toronto Marlies at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Toronto Marlies

4:1

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

TORSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

40%60%

xG: 2.43.1
High danger: 55
Chances: 1013
Shots: 2128

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal28

10Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances5

2.39Expected goals3.10

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–10	3–4	2–1	0.9–1.0
2nd	5–10	4–4	1–2	0.6–1.1
3rd	7–8	3–5	2–2	0.9–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.09
GSAx: +2.09

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 17
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.39
GSAx: -1.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:28Penalty
1st 2:43Dylan Duke (0–1)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
1st 5:12Chas Sharpe (1–1)low · 24 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 12:33Alex Nylander (2–1)high · 20 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 17:31Penalty
1st 17:31Penalty
1st 19:35Penalty
3rd 6:20Penalty
3rd 8:24Borya Valis (3–1)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
3rd 19:41Alex Nylander (4–1)empty net · low · 78 ft · beat Brandon Halverson