Hartford Wolf Pack at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Hartford Wolf Pack

1:4

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

HFDBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

28%72%

xG: 1.92.5
High danger: 13
Chances: 612
Shots: 2425

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal25

6Scoring chances12

1High-danger chances3

1.90Expected goals2.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–10	1–3	0–0	0.4–0.8
2nd	10–9	2–4	1–1	0.8–0.9
3rd	8–6	3–5	0–2	0.8–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	4:12 of the 3rd	15:48	15:48	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Spencer Martin

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: -1.54

Marcus Högberg

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.90
GSAx: +0.90

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:14Penalty
1st 0:14Penalty
1st 1:14Bryce McConnell-Barker (1–0)low · 37 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
1st 3:47Penalty
1st 7:19Matthew Maggio (1–1)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat Spencer Martin
1st 12:35Ethan Bear (1–2)low · 38 ft · beat Spencer Martin
2nd 7:03Penalty
2nd 12:08Penalty
2nd 15:40Penalty
2nd 17:33Penalty
2nd 18:22Adam Beckman (1–3)4v5 · high · 12 ft · beat Spencer Martin
3rd 2:05Penalty
3rd 4:12Chris Terry (1–4)high · 22 ft · beat Spencer Martin
3rd 7:21Penalty
3rd 7:21Penalty
3rd 16:58Penalty