AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, April 14

Bakersfield Condors at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Bakersfield Condors
2:3
Final / OT
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

BAKHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
54%46%
xG
2.42.6
High danger
42
Chances
76
Shots
2530

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal30
7Scoring chances6
4High-danger chances2
2.36Expected goals2.56

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–71–20–00.4–0.5
2nd8–53–13–00.9–0.3
3rd8–132–31–20.7–1.5
OT3–51–00–00.3–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:042:24+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
30
Saves
27
Allowed
3
xGA
2.56
GSAx
-0.44
Carl Lindbom
Shots faced
25
Saves
23
Allowed
2
xGA
2.36
GSAx
+0.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:18Penalty
  • 1st 12:18Penalty
  • 1st 13:45Penalty
  • 1st 19:12Penalty
  • 2nd 2:20Penalty
  • 2nd 3:57Viljami Marjala (1–0)5v4 · high · wrist · 9 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 3rd 1:18Trevor Connelly (1–1)grade A · wrist · 6 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 3:21Penalty
  • 3rd 7:17Penalty
  • 3rd 8:50Kai Uchacz (1–2)5v4 · medium · wrist · 22 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 17:15Penalty
  • 3rd 19:20Seth Griffith (2–2)grade A · snap · 16 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • OT 3:38Penalty
  • OT 3:56Raphael Lavoie (2–3)5v4 · low · slap · 40 ft · beat Matt Tomkins