Bridgeport Islanders at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Bridgeport Islanders

5:2

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

BRIHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 2.21.8
High danger: 43
Chances: 67
Shots: 2420

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal20

6Scoring chances7

4High-danger chances3

2.16Expected goals1.76

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–11	3–5	2–3	1.2–1.2
2nd	8–5	2–1	1–0	0.7–0.3
3rd	4–4	1–1	1–0	0.3–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	17:48	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Semyon Varlamov

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 18
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.76
GSAx: -0.24

Spencer Martin

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 11
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.96
GSAx: -0.04

Callum Tung

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 8
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.21
GSAx: -2.79

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:07Penalty
1st 2:21Penalty
1st 2:44Victor Eklund (1–0)5v4 · grade A · 8 ft · beat Callum Tung
1st 4:11Liam Foudy (2–0)5v4 · low · 54 ft · beat Callum Tung
1st 12:33Matthew Maggio (3–0)medium · 22 ft · beat Callum Tung
1st 16:19Adam Beckman (4–0)low · 32 ft · beat Callum Tung
1st 16:27Penalty
1st 17:16Penalty
1st 19:00Bryce McConnell-Barker (4–1)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Semyon Varlamov
2nd 10:35Penalty
2nd 13:22Penalty
3rd 8:34Penalty
3rd 8:34Penalty
3rd 8:34Penalty
3rd 9:57Trey Fix-Wolansky (4–2)low · 44 ft · beat Semyon Varlamov
3rd 11:53Penalty
3rd 19:33Luke Rowe (5–2)empty net · low · 180 ft · beat Spencer Martin