Hershey Bears at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Hershey Bears

5:1

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

HERWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 2.42.8
High danger: 43
Chances: 79
Shots: 2933

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal33

7Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances3

2.43Expected goals2.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–15	3–6	1–2	1.0–1.4
2nd	12–8	3–1	3–1	1.1–0.8
3rd	5–10	1–2	0–0	0.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: +1.77

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.43
GSAx: -2.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:27Penalty
1st 8:37Penalty
1st 18:40Corey Schueneman (1–0)medium · snap · 23 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
2nd 0:19Penalty
2nd 1:14Ivan Miroshnichenko (2–0)5v4 · high · tip · 6 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
2nd 3:18Matt Strome (3–0)low · slap · 49 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
2nd 6:39Penalty
2nd 7:52Penalty
2nd 16:09Atley Calvert (3–1)grade A · tip · rebound · 11 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 19:48Penalty
3rd 16:22Alex Suzdalev (4–1)empty net · medium · snap · 19 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 16:44Penalty
3rd 19:02Sam Bitten (5–1)empty net · low · wrist · 57 ft · beat Sergei Murashov