Tucson Roadrunners at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

5:1

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

TUCSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

37%63%

xG: 1.82.5
High danger: 34
Chances: 58
Shots: 2124

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal24

5Scoring chances8

3High-danger chances4

1.75Expected goals2.51

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–6	2–1	2–0	0.6–0.3
2nd	7–12	1–5	0–3	0.5–1.6
3rd	5–6	2–2	1–1	0.6–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael Hrabal

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.51
GSAx: +1.51

Damian Clara

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 16
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.75
GSAx: -3.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:50Jalen Luypen (1–0)low · 52 ft · beat Damian Clara
1st 13:12Michal Kunc (2–0)low · 32 ft · beat Damian Clara
1st 18:19Penalty
2nd 0:27Matthew Phillips (2–1)high · 7 ft · beat Michael Hrabal
2nd 0:43Brandon Holt (3–1)low · 38 ft · beat Damian Clara
2nd 0:47Penalty
2nd 3:53Owen Allard (4–1)low · 37 ft · beat Damian Clara
2nd 14:55Penalty
2nd 17:12Penalty
3rd 6:32Owen Allard (5–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Damian Clara
3rd 10:03Penalty
3rd 16:21Penalty
3rd 16:40Penalty