Springfield Thunderbirds at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Springfield Thunderbirds

5:7

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

SPRHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

34%66%

xG: 2.43.6
High danger: 35
Chances: 813
Shots: 2334

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal34

8Scoring chances13

3High-danger chances5

2.39Expected goals3.62

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–9	3–4	1–3	1.0–1.0
2nd	8–8	3–3	0–0	0.9–0.7
3rd	4–17	2–6	2–2	0.5–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	0:35	+0.024 pts
SPR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 27
Allowed: 7
xGA: 3.62
GSAx: -3.38

Callum Tung

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 18
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.39
GSAx: -2.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:40Penalty
1st 14:14Trey Fix-Wolansky (0–1)low · 40 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 14:38Penalty
1st 16:38Hugh McGing (1–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Callum Tung
1st 19:22Penalty
2nd 1:50Simon Robertsson (2–1)low · 35 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 8:32Trey Fix-Wolansky (2–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 9:24Penalty
2nd 13:21Penalty
2nd 13:37Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (3–2)5v4 · medium · 27 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 15:18Akil Thomas (4–2)5v4 · low · 44 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 16:17Penalty
2nd 19:47Hugh McGing (5–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Callum Tung
3rd 0:20Penalty
3rd 0:35Brody Lamb (5–3)5v4 · grade A · 12 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 3:12Kyle Jackson (5–4)medium · 14 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 7:43Casey Fitzgerald (5–5)low · 59 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 15:30Carey Terrance (5–6)low · 20 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 18:28Trey Fix-Wolansky (5–7)empty net · medium · 21 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko