Providence Bruins at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Providence Bruins

1:4

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

PROUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

11%89%

xG: 1.13.4
High danger: 16
Chances: 414
Shots: 1434

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

14Shots on goal34

4Scoring chances14

1High-danger chances6

1.11Expected goals3.44

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–10	2–4	0–2	0.5–1.0
2nd	4–17	1–7	1–3	0.3–1.9
3rd	4–7	1–3	0–1	0.3–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Simon Zajicek

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.44
GSAx: -0.56

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 13
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.11
GSAx: +0.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:48Kyle Criscuolo (0–1)high · 13 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
1st 9:45Penalty
1st 11:10Matyas Melovsky (0–2)5v4 · low · 30 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
1st 15:12Penalty
1st 15:12Penalty
1st 17:22Penalty
1st 17:25Penalty
1st 18:26Matěj Blümel (1–2)5v4 · medium · 38 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 5:30Penalty
2nd 5:30Penalty
2nd 13:46Brian Halonen (1–3)high · rebound · 37 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
2nd 14:14Penalty
2nd 14:14Penalty
2nd 14:14Penalty
2nd 18:30Angus Crookshank (1–4)medium · 17 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
2nd 19:00Penalty