Rockford IceHogs at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Rockford IceHogs

1:6

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

RFDTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

15%85%

xG: 2.14.1
High danger: 210
Chances: 917
Shots: 2336

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 62% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal36

9Scoring chances17

2High-danger chances10

2.14Expected goals4.10

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–12	2–7	2–5	0.7–1.9
2nd	7–13	2–5	0–2	0.5–1.0
3rd	9–11	5–5	0–3	0.9–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 20
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.93
GSAx: -2.07

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 22
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.14
GSAx: +1.14

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 11
Saves: 10
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.17
GSAx: +0.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:34Penalty
1st 7:27Ellis Rickwood (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 13:07Penalty
1st 18:31Trey Taylor (0–2)low · 29 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 3:00Michael Karow (0–3)low · 42 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 4:31Penalty
2nd 13:55Ellis Rickwood (0–4)high · 12 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 16:33Cameron Hughes (0–5)medium · 22 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 1:10Brett Seney (1–5)medium · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 4:33Penalty
3rd 6:25Penalty
3rd 13:23Matthew Seminoff (1–6)high · 14 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 19:08Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty