Manitoba Moose at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Manitoba Moose

2:3

Final / SO

Iowa Wild

The sheet

MBIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

81%19%

xG: 3.31.6
High danger: 62
Chances: 113
Shots: 3327

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal27

11Scoring chances3

6High-danger chances2

3.32Expected goals1.64

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–9	6–0	3–0	1.5–0.3
2nd	4–9	3–1	1–0	0.6–0.5
3rd	11–6	1–1	1–1	0.7–0.5
OT	5–3	1–1	1–1	0.5–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	18:31 of the 3rd	1:29	0:22	+0.035 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Riley Mercer

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.32
GSAx: +1.32

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.64
GSAx: -0.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:15Danny Zhilkin (1–0)high · rebound · 6 ft · beat Riley Mercer
1st 19:41Penalty
2nd 5:24Riley Heidt (1–1)low · 52 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 14:14Penalty
2nd 18:24Penalty
2nd 18:24Penalty
3rd 0:27Penalty
3rd 9:19Penalty
3rd 9:19Penalty
3rd 14:32Penalty
3rd 18:31Dawson Barteaux (2–1)low · 37 ft · beat Riley Mercer
3rd 18:53Bradley Marek (2–2)high · 7 ft · beat Thomas Milic