Calgary Wranglers at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Calgary Wranglers

5:2

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

CGYCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

23%77%

xG: 3.46.4
High danger: 913
Chances: 1424
Shots: 3152

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 76% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal52

14Scoring chances24

9High-danger chances13

3.37Expected goals6.42

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–10	7–3	4–1	1.6–0.8
2nd	11–21	4–12	3–8	1.1–2.9
3rd	7–21	3–9	2–4	0.7–2.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	3	3:48 of the 3rd	16:12	10:26	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Murphy

Shots faced: 52
Saves: 50
Allowed: 2
xGA: 6.42
GSAx: +4.42

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 26
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.37
GSAx: -1.63

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:36Sam Morton (1–0)medium · 28 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 1:29Penalty
1st 6:28Penalty
1st 7:04Daniil Miromanov (2–0)5v4 · grade A · 19 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 7:39Penalty
1st 7:39Penalty
1st 7:39Penalty
1st 7:39Penalty
1st 9:59Penalty
1st 10:49Penalty
1st 11:52Aydar Suniev (3–0)5v4 · grade A · 6 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 18:36Penalty
2nd 2:03Tristen Nielsen (3–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Connor Murphy
2nd 2:24Penalty
2nd 5:03Penalty
2nd 7:44Penalty
2nd 7:44Penalty
2nd 7:44Penalty
2nd 7:44Penalty
2nd 11:07Penalty
2nd 16:21Penalty
3rd 3:48Dryden Hunt (4–1)low · 32 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 4:08Tristen Nielsen (4–2)low · 28 ft · beat Connor Murphy
3rd 5:00Penalty
3rd 9:54Justin Kirkland (5–2)low · 31 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 15:37Penalty
3rd 15:37Penalty
3rd 19:44Penalty
3rd 19:44Penalty
3rd 19:44Penalty