Laval Rocket at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Laval Rocket

3:4

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

LAVTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

86%14%

xG: 3.51.1
High danger: 63
Chances: 113
Shots: 3814

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal14

11Scoring chances3

6High-danger chances3

3.46Expected goals1.14

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–4	1–1	1–1	0.7–0.3
2nd	13–9	4–2	2–2	0.9–0.7
3rd	18–1	6–0	3–0	1.9–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 35
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.46
GSAx: +0.46

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 10
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.14
GSAx: -2.86

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:32Penalty
1st 2:52Jacob Quillan (0–1)5v4 · high · 22 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 3:09Penalty
1st 19:57Benoit-Olivier Groulx (0–2)low · 31 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 3:52Penalty
2nd 3:52Penalty
2nd 17:54Easton Cowan (0–3)high · 16 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 19:28Ryan Tverberg (0–4)high · 10 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 15:04Sean Farrell (1–4)low · 27 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 17:48Penalty
3rd 18:25Samuel Blais (2–4)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 19:08Owen Beck (3–4)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby