Hartford Wolf Pack at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Hartford Wolf Pack

3:4

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

HFDSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

26%74%

xG: 2.73.0
High danger: 15
Chances: 79
Shots: 4033

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal33

7Scoring chances9

1High-danger chances5

2.70Expected goals3.02

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–18	0–4	0–1	0.1–1.5
2nd	21–6	3–3	0–2	1.2–0.7
3rd	15–9	4–2	1–2	1.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Will Cranley

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 37
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.70
GSAx: -0.30

Callum Tung

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.02
GSAx: -0.98

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 14:14Dillon Dube (0–1)medium · 19 ft · beat Callum Tung
1st 19:07Dillon Dube (0–2)low · 33 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 5:45Juraj Pekarcik (0–3)low · 40 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 7:56Brendan Brisson (1–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Will Cranley
2nd 8:37Penalty
2nd 12:48Aidan Thompson (2–3)low · 17 ft · beat Will Cranley
2nd 13:21Hugh McGing (2–4)high · 18 ft · beat Callum Tung
3rd 3:30Penalty
3rd 3:46Brendan Brisson (3–4)5v4 · grade A · 11 ft · beat Will Cranley
3rd 4:38Penalty
3rd 4:38Penalty
3rd 6:02Penalty