Bridgeport Islanders at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Bridgeport Islanders

2:1

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

BRIHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 1.92.6
High danger: 13
Chances: 76
Shots: 2329

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal29

7Scoring chances6

1High-danger chances3

1.94Expected goals2.55

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–10	1–2	0–1	0.4–0.9
2nd	8–8	4–3	1–2	1.0–0.9
3rd	10–11	2–1	0–0	0.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	1	17:14 of the 3rd	2:46	2:46	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Semyon Varlamov

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: +1.55

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.94
GSAx: -0.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 5:35Adam Beckman (1–0)low · 11 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 8:06Penalty
2nd 9:16Henrik Rybinski (1–1)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Semyon Varlamov
2nd 10:46Penalty
2nd 15:56Penalty
3rd 17:14Calle Odelius (2–1)low · 58 ft · beat Clay Stevenson