Manitoba Moose at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Manitoba Moose

6:1

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

MBIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

85%15%

xG: 4.01.7
High danger: 103
Chances: 177
Shots: 3718

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal18

17Scoring chances7

10High-danger chances3

3.97Expected goals1.74

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–12	5–4	1–2	0.8–1.1
2nd	16–3	8–2	7–0	2.1–0.4
3rd	12–3	4–1	2–1	1.0–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Chase Wutzke

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 31
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.97
GSAx: -2.03

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 17
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.74
GSAx: +0.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:02Penalty
1st 17:32Penalty
1st 18:40Oskar Olausson (0–1)5v4 · high · 27 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 3:27Jacob Julien (1–1)low · 28 ft · beat Chase Wutzke
2nd 5:08Colby Barlow (2–1)high · 11 ft · beat Chase Wutzke
2nd 8:04Colby Barlow (3–1)high · rebound · 18 ft · beat Chase Wutzke
2nd 10:41Penalty
2nd 13:11Penalty
2nd 16:15Parker Ford (4–1)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Chase Wutzke
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 0:27Penalty
3rd 13:19Penalty
3rd 14:14Phillip Di Giuseppe (5–1)4v5 · low · 27 ft · beat Chase Wutzke
3rd 14:46Penalty
3rd 17:22Lucas Wahlin (6–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Chase Wutzke