Belleville Senators at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Belleville Senators

0:4

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

BELSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

12%88%

xG: 1.54.4
High danger: 210
Chances: 415
Shots: 2133

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 64% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal33

4Scoring chances15

2High-danger chances10

1.54Expected goals4.44

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–16	2–8	1–8	0.6–2.2
2nd	5–9	1–4	0–2	0.3–1.5
3rd	7–8	1–3	1–0	0.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	3	2:37 of the 3rd	17:23	17:23	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaidan Mbereko

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.44
GSAx: +0.44

Jon Gillies

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 21
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.54
GSAx: +1.54

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:37Penalty
1st 3:00Spencer Kersten (0–1)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Kaidan Mbereko
1st 11:01Penalty
1st 15:29Penalty
1st 15:52Penalty
1st 16:53Penalty
2nd 3:46Penalty
2nd 10:37Penalty
2nd 10:37Penalty
2nd 10:37Penalty
2nd 11:59Penalty
2nd 15:28Cooper Flinton (0–2)5v4 · grade A · 3 ft · beat Kaidan Mbereko
2nd 16:06Penalty
3rd 1:41Penalty
3rd 2:37Spencer Kersten (0–3)5v4 · low · 42 ft · beat Kaidan Mbereko
3rd 6:14Max Grondin (0–4)low · 61 ft · beat Kaidan Mbereko
3rd 16:16Penalty
3rd 16:16Penalty
3rd 16:16Penalty
3rd 16:16Penalty