Utica Comets at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Utica Comets

4:2

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

UTCPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 2.62.2
High danger: 31
Chances: 87
Shots: 3131

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal31

8Scoring chances7

3High-danger chances1

2.61Expected goals2.24

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–15	1–3	0–1	0.4–1.1
2nd	16–6	2–1	0–0	0.9–0.3
3rd	9–10	5–3	3–0	1.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	5:44	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: -1.39

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: +0.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:26Matěj Blümel (0–1)low · 50 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 8:10Penalty
1st 11:37Penalty
2nd 0:09Penalty
2nd 0:09Penalty
2nd 10:51Penalty
2nd 14:02Penalty
2nd 18:28Penalty
2nd 19:00Lenni Hämeenaho (1–1)5v4 · medium · 44 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 19:21Colton White (2–1)low · 66 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 0:12Penalty
3rd 5:00Penalty
3rd 5:19Penalty
3rd 10:30Penalty
3rd 12:08Kyle Criscuolo (3–1)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 12:58Penalty
3rd 14:32Penalty
3rd 14:49Georgii Merkulov (3–2)low · 45 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 19:20Jonathan Gruden (4–2)empty net · high · 8 ft · beat Michael DiPietro