Bakersfield Condors at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Bakersfield Condors

3:4

Final / OT

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

BAKSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

54%46%

xG: 3.53.4
High danger: 45
Chances: 1513
Shots: 3535

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal35

15Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances5

3.48Expected goals3.38

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–17	2–7	0–4	0.4–1.8
2nd	13–10	6–4	3–0	1.7–0.8
3rd	13–5	7–1	1–0	1.3–0.3
OT	1–3	0–1	0–1	0.1–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:34	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Ungar

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.38
GSAx: -0.62

Gabriel Carriere

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 32
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.48
GSAx: +0.48

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:10Penalty
1st 10:10Penalty
1st 10:10Penalty
1st 11:20Kasper Halttunen (0–1)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Connor Ungar
1st 15:38Penalty
2nd 2:38Penalty
2nd 8:48Isaac Howard (1–1)low · 14 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
2nd 12:00Penalty
2nd 14:51Quentin Musty (1–2)medium · 28 ft · beat Connor Ungar
2nd 18:00Viljami Marjala (2–2)medium · 16 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
2nd 18:30Kyle Crnkovic (2–3)low · 34 ft · beat Connor Ungar
3rd 4:36Penalty
3rd 8:22Penalty
3rd 17:26Penalty
3rd 17:30Atro Leppänen (3–3)5v4 · medium · 50 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
3rd 19:40Penalty
OT 4:24Jarod Crespo (3–4)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Connor Ungar