AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, April 18

Henderson Silver Knights at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Henderson Silver Knights
4:5
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

HSKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
39%61%
xG
2.93.0
High danger
35
Chances
1211
Shots
2425

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal25
12Scoring chances11
3High-danger chances5
2.88Expected goals2.99

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st3–91–60–20.2–1.3
2nd13–87–32–21.7–1.1
3rd8–84–21–10.9–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HSK−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HSK212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cameron Whitehead
Shots faced
25
Saves
20
Allowed
5
xGA
2.99
GSAx
-2.01
Michael Hrabal
Shots faced
24
Saves
20
Allowed
4
xGA
2.88
GSAx
-1.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:39Penalty
  • 1st 5:21Cameron Hebig (0–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
  • 1st 10:48Jack Ricketts (0–2)medium · 30 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
  • 2nd 1:22Cameron Hebig (0–3)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
  • 2nd 6:55Penalty
  • 2nd 10:14Kai Uchacz (1–3)low · 35 ft · beat Michael Hrabal
  • 2nd 11:37Penalty
  • 2nd 11:37Penalty
  • 2nd 11:37Penalty
  • 2nd 11:37Penalty
  • 2nd 11:37Penalty
  • 2nd 11:37Penalty
  • 2nd 11:37Mitch McLain (2–3)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Michael Hrabal
  • 2nd 16:51Penalty
  • 3rd 5:46Penalty
  • 3rd 5:46Penalty
  • 3rd 5:46Penalty
  • 3rd 5:46Penalty
  • 3rd 11:52Cameron Hebig (2–4)high · 9 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
  • 3rd 17:13Austin Poganski (2–5)empty net · low · 47 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
  • 3rd 18:58Penalty
  • 3rd 18:58Penalty
  • 3rd 19:03Viliam Kmec (3–5)low · 42 ft · beat Michael Hrabal
  • 3rd 19:45Raphael Lavoie (4–5)high · 19 ft · beat Michael Hrabal