Milwaukee Admirals at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Milwaukee Admirals

1:5

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

MILCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 3.02.9
High danger: 38
Chances: 912
Shots: 3626

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal26

9Scoring chances12

3High-danger chances8

2.97Expected goals2.87

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–10	3–3	1–1	1.0–0.7
2nd	12–11	2–7	1–6	1.1–1.7
3rd	11–5	4–2	1–1	0.9–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 35
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.97
GSAx: +1.97

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.87
GSAx: -2.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:56Penalty
1st 7:29Ronan Seeley (0–1)low · 48 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
1st 17:00Nikita Pavlychev (0–2)high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 9:33Justin Robidas (0–3)high · 7 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 12:32Bradly Nadeau (0–4)grade A · rebound · 4 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 15:40Isaac Ratcliffe (1–4)grade A · rebound · 4 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 17:48Penalty
2nd 17:48Penalty
2nd 19:30Noah Philp (1–5)high · 8 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 12:37Penalty
3rd 15:06Penalty
3rd 15:36Penalty