Laval Rocket at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Laval Rocket

2:4

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

LAVTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

37%63%

xG: 2.83.8
High danger: 46
Chances: 812
Shots: 3431

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal31

8Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances6

2.75Expected goals3.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–11	4–2	2–0	1.4–0.8
2nd	9–9	1–7	0–3	0.6–1.3
3rd	10–11	3–3	2–3	0.7–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.75
GSAx: +0.75

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.77
GSAx: -0.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:54Dakota Mermis (0–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 9:26Penalty
1st 9:43Vinzenz Rohrer (1–1)4v5 · low · 27 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 1:46Vinni Lettieri (1–2)low · 38 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 7:28Penalty
2nd 7:28Penalty
2nd 14:54Penalty
3rd 2:23Penalty
3rd 7:06Jacob Quillan (1–3)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 8:35Penalty
3rd 8:35Penalty
3rd 8:35Penalty
3rd 8:35Penalty
3rd 8:47Owen Beck (2–3)4v5 · high · 17 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 19:53Michael Pezzetta (2–4)empty net · low · 28 ft · beat Hunter Shepard