AHLDashboard
Tuesday, April 21

Hershey Bears at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Hershey Bears
2:0
Final
Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

HERBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
22%78%
xG
1.01.2
High danger
01
Chances
24
Shots
2318

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.51P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BRI above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal18
2Scoring chances4
0High-danger chances1
1.03Expected goals1.18

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6912000.20.5
2nd4300000.20.1
3rd13612010.60.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BRI−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BRI116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
23
Saves
21
Allowed
2
xGA
1.03
GSAx
-0.97
Shots faced
18
Saves
18
Allowed
0
xGA
1.18
GSAx
+1.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:42Penalty
  • 1st 7:22Penalty
  • 1st 7:22Penalty
  • 1st 14:05Penalty
  • 2nd 12:47Penalty
  • 3rd 12:31David Gucciardi (1–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 3rd 19:58Ilya Protas (2–0)empty net · low · 52 ft · beat Marcus Högberg