Rochester Americans at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Rochester Americans

0:5

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

ROCTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

13%87%

xG: 1.32.8
High danger: 05
Chances: 511
Shots: 1632

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

16Shots on goal32

5Scoring chances11

0High-danger chances5

1.31Expected goals2.79

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–11	3–6	0–4	0.5–1.3
2nd	8–11	1–2	0–0	0.5–0.7
3rd	4–10	1–3	0–1	0.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 27
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.79
GSAx: -2.21

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 16
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.31
GSAx: +1.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:03Penalty
1st 7:06Michael Pezzetta (0–1)low · 43 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 7:30Penalty
1st 14:33Benoit-Olivier Groulx (0–2)high · rebound · 12 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 14:56Penalty
1st 16:40Penalty
1st 19:17Vinni Lettieri (0–3)5v4 · low · 26 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 5:41Penalty
2nd 13:51Vinni Lettieri (0–4)low · 36 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 16:45Penalty
2nd 19:07Penalty
2nd 19:56Vinni Lettieri (0–5)5v4 · medium · 56 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 0:31Penalty
3rd 7:31Penalty
3rd 7:31Penalty
3rd 7:31Penalty
3rd 7:31Penalty
3rd 7:31Penalty
3rd 10:36Penalty