Springfield Thunderbirds at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Springfield Thunderbirds

1:8

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

SPRCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

11%89%

xG: 1.63.8
High danger: 110
Chances: 817
Shots: 1938

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 64% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal38

8Scoring chances17

1High-danger chances10

1.64Expected goals3.83

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	2–15	1–5	0–3	0.2–1.3
2nd	8–13	2–5	1–3	0.6–1.2
3rd	9–10	5–7	0–4	0.9–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	7	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Will Cranley

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.52
GSAx: -1.48

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.64
GSAx: +0.64

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 11
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.32
GSAx: -2.68

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:05Marek Alscher (0–1)low · 43 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 13:07Noah Gregor (0–2)high · 14 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 17:01Nolan Foote (0–3)medium · 33 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 18:54Penalty
1st 18:54Penalty
1st 19:21Noah Gregor (0–4)high · 11 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 1:40Jack Studnicka (0–5)high · 23 ft · beat Will Cranley
2nd 3:37Sandis Vilmanis (0–6)high · 15 ft · beat Will Cranley
2nd 4:15Penalty
2nd 7:47Tobias Björnfot (0–7)medium · 24 ft · beat Will Cranley
2nd 8:32Penalty
2nd 12:02Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 2:36Penalty
3rd 4:39Julien Gauthier (1–7)medium · 17 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 8:04Penalty
3rd 10:40Penalty
3rd 10:50Penalty
3rd 19:20Jack Studnicka (1–8)medium · 12 ft · beat Will Cranley