Milwaukee Admirals at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Milwaukee Admirals

4:1

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

MILMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 2.33.5
High danger: 73
Chances: 813
Shots: 2443

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal43

8Scoring chances13

7High-danger chances3

2.33Expected goals3.45

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–10	2–4	2–1	0.6–0.9
2nd	11–17	4–4	3–1	1.2–1.4
3rd	6–16	2–5	2–1	0.5–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	12:05	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 43
Saves: 42
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.45
GSAx: +2.45

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 20
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.33
GSAx: -1.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:26Penalty
1st 8:26Penalty
1st 9:18Reid Schaefer (1–0)high · 10 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 12:09Goal (2–0)high · 8 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 13:35Penalty
2nd 6:45Kevin Gravel (3–0)low · rebound · 69 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 0:36Penalty
3rd 4:14Parker Ford (3–1)medium · 8 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 18:41Cole O’Hara (4–1)empty net · low · 110 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 19:38Penalty
3rd 19:38Penalty