AHLDashboard
‹ Thursday, April 23

Bridgeport Islanders at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Bridgeport Islanders
2:5
Final
Hershey Bears

The sheet

BRIHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
46%54%
xG
2.32.1
High danger
45
Chances
99
Shots
2423

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal23
9Scoring chances9
4High-danger chances5
2.30Expected goals2.13

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–83–32–20.8–0.7
2nd12–95–42–21.1–1.0
3rd7–61–20–10.4–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BRI−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BRI116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
24
Saves
22
Allowed
2
xGA
2.30
GSAx
+0.30
Marcus Högberg
Shots faced
23
Saves
18
Allowed
5
xGA
2.14
GSAx
-2.86

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:10Andrew Cristall (0–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 1st 7:15Penalty
  • 1st 12:51Penalty
  • 1st 14:32Penalty
  • 1st 14:32Penalty
  • 1st 15:12Penalty
  • 1st 18:22Penalty
  • 1st 18:22Penalty
  • 1st 18:22Penalty
  • 2nd 0:34Penalty
  • 2nd 1:07Matt Luff (1–1)5v4 · medium · 39 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 2nd 4:39Penalty
  • 2nd 10:55Sam Bitten (1–2)high · rebound · 6 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 2nd 12:44Andrew Cristall (1–3)high · 8 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 2nd 15:18Penalty
  • 3rd 9:57Calum Ritchie (2–3)medium · 25 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 17:57Sonny Milano (2–4)empty net · low · 96 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 3rd 18:26Bogdan Trineyev (2–5)low · 81 ft · beat Marcus Högberg