AHLDashboard
‹ Thursday, April 23

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds
1:6
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CVBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
70%30%
xG
4.02.7
High danger
64
Chances
1411
Shots
3927

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal27
14Scoring chances11
6High-danger chances4
4.03Expected goals2.67

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–113–42–11.0–0.9
2nd14–97–32–21.4–0.9
3rd14–74–42–11.6–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
39
Saves
38
Allowed
1
xGA
4.03
GSAx
+3.03
Nikke Kokko
Shots faced
23
Saves
17
Allowed
6
xGA
2.30
GSAx
-3.70
Victor Östman
Shots faced
4
Saves
4
Allowed
0
xGA
0.37
GSAx
+0.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:44Penalty
  • 1st 4:10Seth Griffith (0–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 30 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 1st 10:42Quinn Hutson (0–2)low · slap · 49 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 1st 15:58Penalty
  • 1st 19:40Ty Nelson (1–2)low · wrist · 65 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 2:22Penalty
  • 2nd 2:22Penalty
  • 2nd 6:21Penalty
  • 2nd 10:01Sam Poulin (1–3)medium · wrist · 10 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 10:43Penalty
  • 2nd 13:58Seth Griffith (1–4)low · wrist · 30 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 14:57Penalty
  • 2nd 14:57Penalty
  • 2nd 14:57Penalty
  • 2nd 14:57Penalty
  • 2nd 14:57Penalty
  • 2nd 18:26Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 1:07Penalty
  • 3rd 3:23James Hamblin (1–5)grade A · 10 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 4:07Riley Stillman (1–6)low · wrist · 59 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 8:15Penalty
  • 3rd 8:15Penalty
  • 3rd 8:15Penalty
  • 3rd 11:31Penalty
  • 3rd 11:31Penalty
  • 3rd 17:19Penalty
  • 3rd 19:02Penalty
  • 3rd 19:02Penalty
  • 3rd 19:02Penalty
  • 3rd 19:02Penalty