Milwaukee Admirals at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Milwaukee Admirals

1:2

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

MILMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

29%71%

xG: 1.72.9
High danger: 45
Chances: 510
Shots: 2035

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal35

5Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances5

1.73Expected goals2.94

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	1–3	1–2	0.6–1.0
2nd	5–12	1–5	1–2	0.4–1.2
3rd	6–12	3–2	2–1	0.8–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	1	19:17 of the 3rd	0:43	0:43	+0.015 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.94
GSAx: +0.94

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.73
GSAx: +0.73

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:12Penalty
1st 15:40Penalty
1st 15:40Penalty
1st 19:32Penalty
2nd 1:30Penalty
2nd 1:42Ryan Ufko (1–0)4v5 · high · 8 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 3:53Parker Ford (1–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 8:49Penalty
2nd 10:33Penalty
3rd 1:33Penalty
3rd 5:15Penalty
3rd 12:54Penalty
3rd 18:08Penalty
3rd 19:17David Gustafsson (1–2)5v4 · medium · 56 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty