San Diego Gulls at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

San Diego Gulls

1:6

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

SDCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

23%77%

xG: 2.23.1
High danger: 37
Chances: 813
Shots: 2732

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 65% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal32

8Scoring chances13

3High-danger chances7

2.23Expected goals3.10

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–11	2–6	1–2	0.5–1.3
2nd	14–7	4–1	2–1	1.2–0.3
3rd	6–14	2–6	0–4	0.5–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	7:34 of the 3rd	12:26	12:26	+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Damian Clara

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 26
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.10
GSAx: -2.90

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.23
GSAx: +1.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:32Ronnie Attard (0–1)medium · 7 ft · beat Damian Clara
1st 10:44Sasha Pastujov (1–1)high · 6 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 11:51Jayson Megna (1–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Damian Clara
2nd 2:08Penalty
2nd 6:48Penalty
2nd 13:37Penalty
2nd 15:15Penalty
3rd 1:43Alex Gagne (1–3)low · snap · 46 ft · beat Damian Clara
3rd 5:49Penalty
3rd 7:34Matt DiMarsico (1–4)5v4 · high · rebound · 26 ft · beat Damian Clara
3rd 12:10Sean Behrens (1–5)low · 26 ft · beat Damian Clara
3rd 15:14Penalty
3rd 15:14Penalty
3rd 16:08Ivan Ivan (1–6)empty net · low · 137 ft · beat Damian Clara
3rd 18:59Penalty
3rd 18:59Penalty
3rd 18:59Penalty
3rd 18:59Penalty
3rd 18:59Penalty
3rd 18:59Penalty