San Jose Barracuda at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

San Jose Barracuda

1:5

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

SJHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

19%81%

xG: 1.93.7
High danger: 37
Chances: 614
Shots: 2732

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal32

6Scoring chances14

3High-danger chances7

1.95Expected goals3.70

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–11	4–7	3–3	1.0–1.5
2nd	8–9	0–4	0–3	0.3–1.2
3rd	11–12	2–3	0–1	0.6–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Laurent Brossoit

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 27
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.70
GSAx: -1.30

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.95
GSAx: +0.95

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:44Penalty
1st 7:56Braeden Bowman (0–1)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
1st 10:22Penalty
1st 13:15Penalty
1st 13:15Penalty
1st 13:15Penalty
1st 13:15Penalty
1st 13:15Penalty
1st 16:53Penalty
1st 17:31Penalty
1st 17:40Raphael Lavoie (0–2)5v4 · grade A · 14 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
2nd 2:07Alexander Holtz (0–3)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
2nd 4:03Penalty
2nd 12:25Penalty
2nd 18:54Egor Afanasyev (1–3)low · 24 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 17:02Jeremy Davies (1–4)empty net · low · wrist · 180 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
3rd 19:09Lucas Johansen (1–5)empty net · low · 118 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit