AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, April 25

Bakersfield Condors at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Bakersfield Condors
4:5
Final
Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

BAKCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
23%77%
xG
1.82.6
High danger
25
Chances
714
Shots
1523

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CV above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

15Shots on goal23
7Scoring chances14
2High-danger chances5
1.81Expected goals2.58

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–71–20–20.3–0.5
2nd3–91–60–00.2–0.9
3rd8–75–62–31.3–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
23
Saves
18
Allowed
5
xGA
2.58
GSAx
-2.42
Nikke Kokko
Shots faced
15
Saves
11
Allowed
4
xGA
1.81
GSAx
-2.19

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 8:49Penalty
  • 1st 10:10Eduard Šalé (0–1)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 18:10Penalty
  • 2nd 0:54Penalty
  • 2nd 2:34Jagger Firkus (0–2)5v4 · medium · 16 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 3:40Penalty
  • 2nd 5:11Alec Regula (1–2)5v4 · medium · 11 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 6:04Penalty
  • 2nd 6:04Penalty
  • 2nd 7:03Penalty
  • 2nd 14:10Mitchell Stephens (1–3)medium · 14 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 0:51Penalty
  • 3rd 2:36Quinn Hutson (2–3)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 6:21Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (2–4)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 6:44Penalty
  • 3rd 11:25Atro Leppänen (3–4)low · 19 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 12:03Riley Stillman (4–4)medium · 9 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 16:50Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (4–5)medium · 36 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 17:59Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty