Rochester Americans at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Rochester Americans

2:4

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

ROCTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

29%71%

xG: 2.54.0
High danger: 37
Chances: 1117
Shots: 3139

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal39

11Scoring chances17

3High-danger chances7

2.53Expected goals3.97

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–16	4–6	0–0	0.7–1.5
2nd	14–13	4–6	1–3	1.1–1.4
3rd	9–10	3–5	2–4	0.8–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 35
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.97
GSAx: -0.03

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.53
GSAx: +0.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:12Ryan Tverberg (0–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 11:16Penalty
1st 17:01Penalty
1st 17:15Penalty
2nd 4:47Logan Shaw (0–2)medium · 26 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 10:06Konsta Helenius (1–2)medium · 16 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 13:52Penalty
2nd 14:30Logan Shaw (1–3)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 15:36Penalty
2nd 16:24Olivier Nadeau (2–3)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 5:30Penalty
3rd 11:49Penalty
3rd 18:30William Villeneuve (2–4)empty net · low · 183 ft · beat Devon Levi