Bakersfield Condors at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Bakersfield Condors

2:6

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

BAKCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 2.92.9
High danger: 45
Chances: 1012
Shots: 3327

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal27

10Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances5

2.89Expected goals2.94

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–5	4–1	2–0	1.5–0.2
2nd	5–14	1–7	0–3	0.2–1.6
3rd	13–8	5–4	2–2	1.2–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	16:09	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.89
GSAx: +0.89

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 21
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.94
GSAx: -3.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:43Penalty
2nd 0:42Penalty
2nd 1:56J.R. Avon (0–1)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 8:36Jagger Firkus (0–2)low · 38 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 13:02Jacob Melanson (0–3)low · 28 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 15:29Penalty
2nd 15:29Penalty
2nd 18:22Jani Nyman (0–4)high · 12 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 2:14Damien Carfagna (1–4)low · 41 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 4:13Penalty
3rd 7:05Penalty
3rd 8:18Quinn Hutson (2–4)5v4 · medium · 45 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 16:50Logan Morrison (2–5)low · 24 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 17:24Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (2–6)empty net · medium · 10 ft · beat Matt Tomkins