Toronto Marlies at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Toronto Marlies

1:3

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

TORLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 1.62.3
High danger: 13
Chances: 69
Shots: 2126

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal26

6Scoring chances9

1High-danger chances3

1.63Expected goals2.29

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–7	4–3	0–0	0.8–0.7
2nd	9–9	1–4	0–2	0.6–0.8
3rd	3–10	1–2	1–1	0.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	5:06	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.29
GSAx: -0.71

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 20
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.63
GSAx: +0.63

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:13Penalty
1st 5:21Penalty
1st 11:44Florian Xhekaj (0–1)low · snap · 32 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 0:50Penalty
2nd 3:36Penalty
2nd 8:13Penalty
3rd 6:15Joshua Roy (0–2)low · wrist · 30 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 14:11Cédric Paré (1–2)high · tip · 7 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 18:33Samuel Blais (1–3)empty net · grade A · backhand · 4 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby