AHLDashboard
Wednesday, April 29

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds
3:0
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

CVONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
61%39%
xG
3.32.4
High danger
44
Chances
129
Shots
3323

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal23
12Scoring chances9
4High-danger chances4
3.31Expected goals2.43

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st131235121.01.1
2nd9541211.20.5
3rd11653111.10.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT311:12 of the 3rd8:488:48+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
33
Saves
30
Allowed
3
xGA
3.31
GSAx
+0.31
Shots faced
23
Saves
23
Allowed
0
xGA
2.43
GSAx
+2.43

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 10:02Penalty
  • 1st 10:02Penalty
  • 1st 17:44Penalty
  • 2nd 4:02Penalty
  • 2nd 4:44J.R. Avon (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 6:50Penalty
  • 2nd 7:47Penalty
  • 2nd 9:16Penalty
  • 2nd 14:15Penalty
  • 3rd 5:07Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (2–0)medium · 19 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 3rd 11:12J.R. Avon (3–0)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 3rd 19:11Penalty
  • 3rd 19:11Penalty
  • 3rd 19:11Penalty