Coachella Valley Firebirds at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds

1:5

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

CVONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 3.02.6
High danger: 16
Chances: 610
Shots: 3524

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal24

6Scoring chances10

1High-danger chances6

3.00Expected goals2.61

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–10	3–3	1–2	1.3–1.0
2nd	15–9	1–4	0–2	0.8–0.9
3rd	11–5	2–3	0–2	0.9–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	3	2:34 of the 3rd	17:26	17:26	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 34
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.01
GSAx: +2.01

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 19
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: -2.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:52Lleyton Roed (1–0)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 18:45Logan Brown (1–1)high · 6 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 7:23Penalty
2nd 15:17Glenn Gawdin (1–2)high · rebound · 9 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 17:52Penalty
2nd 17:52Penalty
3rd 0:15Cole Guttman (1–3)medium · 21 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 0:35Penalty
3rd 2:34Francesco Pinelli (1–4)4v5 · grade A · 7 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 4:39Penalty
3rd 13:09Penalty
3rd 16:41Martin Chromiak (1–5)empty net · high · 13 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 17:51Penalty