Hershey Bears at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Hershey Bears

2:1

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

HERWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 3.03.0
High danger: 43
Chances: 1212
Shots: 2637

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal37

12Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances3

2.98Expected goals2.97

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–3	3–2	1–0	1.0–0.4
2nd	10–12	5–6	0–2	0.9–1.1
3rd	8–22	4–4	3–1	1.1–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 36
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.97
GSAx: +1.97

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.98
GSAx: +0.98

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:41Penalty
1st 14:54Penalty
1st 16:25Brett Leason (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
1st 19:57Penalty
2nd 5:21Penalty
2nd 12:22Penalty
2nd 17:11Bogdan Trineyev (2–0)medium · 14 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
2nd 17:59Penalty
3rd 1:12Aidan McDonough (2–1)low · 46 ft · beat Clay Stevenson