AHLDashboard
Tuesday, May 5

Ontario Reign at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Ontario Reign
2:1
Final
Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

ONTCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
83%17%
xG
2.01.4
High danger
20
Chances
63
Shots
2428

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CV above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal28
6Scoring chances3
2High-danger chances0
1.99Expected goals1.43

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st91522000.50.8
2nd7721000.60.4
3rd8620200.90.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
28
Saves
27
Allowed
1
xGA
1.43
GSAx
+0.43
Shots faced
24
Saves
22
Allowed
2
xGA
1.99
GSAx
-0.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 16:50Jani Nyman (0–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 16:53Penalty
  • 3rd 5:56Aatu Jämsen (1–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 7:16Logan Brown (2–1)low · 29 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 17:48Penalty