Manitoba Moose at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Manitoba Moose

2:4

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

MBGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

15%85%

xG: 1.42.7
High danger: 26
Chances: 410
Shots: 1732

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 62% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

17Shots on goal32

4Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances6

1.39Expected goals2.70

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–11	1–3	0–3	0.4–1.1
2nd	4–8	3–3	2–1	0.6–0.6
3rd	7–13	0–4	0–2	0.4–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:43	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.70
GSAx: -1.30

Michal Postava

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 15
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.39
GSAx: -0.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:57Jakub Rychlovský (0–1)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 4:41Erik Gustafsson (0–2)low · slap · 68 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 10:11Penalty
2nd 13:15Penalty
2nd 17:00Carter Mazur (0–3)medium · wrist · 34 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 19:22Mason Shaw (1–3)high · wrist · 8 ft · beat Michal Postava
3rd 16:40Penalty
3rd 16:40Penalty
3rd 16:48Samuel Fagemo (2–3)low · 50 ft · beat Michal Postava
3rd 19:14Carter Mazur (2–4)empty net · low · wrist · 64 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis