Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

4:1

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

WBSHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 3.43.9
High danger: 57
Chances: 1413
Shots: 3038

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal38

14Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances7

3.39Expected goals3.92

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–14	4–6	0–4	1.2–1.7
2nd	9–10	6–1	2–1	1.4–0.7
3rd	7–14	4–6	3–2	0.9–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 37
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.92
GSAx: +2.92

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.39
GSAx: -0.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:15Joona Koppanen (1–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 2:20Penalty
1st 2:20Penalty
1st 9:49Penalty
1st 19:00Penalty
1st 19:54Ivan Miroshnichenko (1–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 5:01Penalty
2nd 6:20Harrison Brunicke (2–1)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 19 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 17:34Penalty
3rd 1:08Penalty
3rd 3:33Ville Koivunen (3–1)high · 13 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 5:36Penalty
3rd 8:47Penalty
3rd 12:03Penalty
3rd 15:08Penalty
3rd 17:42Penalty
3rd 19:29Gabe Klassen (4–1)empty net · low · 138 ft · beat Clay Stevenson