Ontario Reign at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Ontario Reign

2:6

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

ONTCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 3.32.8
High danger: 45
Chances: 139
Shots: 2833

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal33

13Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances5

3.27Expected goals2.80

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–15	2–2	1–1	0.5–0.9
2nd	8–9	5–4	0–2	0.9–1.1
3rd	15–9	6–3	3–2	1.8–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	3	3:50 of the 3rd	16:10	16:10	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 27
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: -3.20

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.27
GSAx: +1.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:02Penalty
1st 9:02Penalty
1st 14:02Jack Hughes (1–0)grade A · 12 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 17:28Penalty
1st 17:34J.R. Avon (1–1)5v4 · grade A · 5 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 5:59Penalty
2nd 9:14Penalty
2nd 14:09Mitchell Stephens (1–2)low · 31 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 18:35Kaden Hammell (1–3)medium · 36 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 3:50Lleyton Roed (1–4)low · 46 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 4:22Penalty
3rd 12:37Penalty
3rd 12:40Penalty
3rd 15:17Nikita Alexandrov (2–4)medium · 18 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 16:23Jagger Firkus (2–5)empty net · medium · 15 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 16:40Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (2–6)empty net · high · 12 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 17:25Penalty