Henderson Silver Knights at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Henderson Silver Knights

2:6

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

HSKCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

18%82%

xG: 1.83.5
High danger: 26
Chances: 614
Shots: 2338

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal38

6Scoring chances14

2High-danger chances6

1.82Expected goals3.53

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–18	5–7	2–4	1.3–1.8
2nd	2–15	1–6	0–2	0.2–1.3
3rd	9–5	0–1	0–0	0.3–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 32
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.53
GSAx: -2.47

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.82
GSAx: -0.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:21Jackson Hallum (1–0)grade A · 7 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 13:23Penalty
1st 15:19Gavin Brindley (1–1)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
1st 16:10Ben Hemmerling (2–1)high · 9 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 18:56Tristen Nielsen (2–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 6:36Chase Bradley (2–3)low · 39 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 2:29Penalty
3rd 4:20Alex Barré-Boulet (2–4)5v4 · low · 59 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 4:25Penalty
3rd 16:00Keaton Middleton (2–5)empty net · low · 182 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 17:29Tristen Nielsen (2–6)empty net · low · 146 ft · beat Carl Lindbom