AHLDashboard
Wednesday, May 13

Colorado Eagles at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Colorado Eagles
3:0
Final
Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

COLCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
88%12%
xG
2.91.4
High danger
51
Chances
113
Shots
3220

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CV above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal20
11Scoring chances3
5High-danger chances1
2.95Expected goals1.37

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12641211.10.4
2nd13440201.30.2
3rd71032100.50.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
32
Saves
29
Allowed
3
xGA
2.95
GSAx
-0.05
Shots faced
20
Saves
20
Allowed
0
xGA
1.37
GSAx
+1.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:09Penalty
  • 1st 0:09Penalty
  • 2nd 6:40Ronnie Attard (1–0)low · 40 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 7:06Penalty
  • 2nd 11:35T.J. Hughes (2–0)medium · 32 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 14:49Penalty
  • 3rd 7:32Penalty
  • 3rd 19:50Tye Felhaber (3–0)empty net · low · 163 ft · beat Nikke Kokko