Colorado Eagles at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Colorado Eagles

0:4

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

COLCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

55%45%

xG: 2.72.2
High danger: 22
Chances: 79
Shots: 3325

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal25

7Scoring chances9

2High-danger chances2

2.66Expected goals2.22

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–10	2–2	1–0	0.9–0.7
2nd	8–7	3–3	1–1	0.8–0.8
3rd	12–8	2–4	0–1	0.9–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 33
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.66
GSAx: +2.66

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.22
GSAx: -1.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:24Penalty
2nd 1:17Penalty
2nd 4:16Penalty
2nd 4:48Penalty
2nd 9:03Penalty
2nd 14:43Penalty
3rd 1:20J.R. Avon (0–1)medium · 18 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 2:31Eduard Šalé (0–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 3:11Penalty
3rd 3:11Penalty
3rd 11:45Penalty
3rd 16:05J.R. Avon (0–3)high · 13 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 18:17Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (0–4)empty net · low · 73 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty