Coachella Valley Firebirds at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Coachella Valley Firebirds

1:4

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

CVCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 2.94.5
High danger: 710
Chances: 1317
Shots: 2936

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal36

13Scoring chances17

7High-danger chances10

2.91Expected goals4.55

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–17	7–8	5–4	1.4–2.4
2nd	12–6	3–2	1–1	0.8–0.5
3rd	8–13	3–7	1–5	0.7–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	3	7:02 of the 3rd	12:58	12:58	+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 32
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.55
GSAx: +0.55

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.91
GSAx: +1.91

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:08Penalty
1st 4:55Penalty
1st 4:55Penalty
1st 9:16Penalty
1st 10:05Penalty
1st 13:22Penalty
1st 14:46Lleyton Roed (1–0)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 2:00Penalty
2nd 8:43Chase Bradley (1–1)high · 8 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 11:36Penalty
2nd 11:36Penalty
3rd 0:33Chase Bradley (1–2)high · 6 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 4:28Gavin Brindley (1–3)high · 8 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 4:55Penalty
3rd 7:02T.J. Hughes (1–4)high · 11 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 14:10Penalty