Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

2:1

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

WBSSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

65%35%

xG: 3.32.8
High danger: 63
Chances: 1214
Shots: 3228

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal28

12Scoring chances14

6High-danger chances3

3.27Expected goals2.76

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	3–5	1–2	0.8–1.1
2nd	12–4	5–2	3–0	1.4–0.4
3rd	10–14	4–7	2–1	1.0–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:16	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.27
GSAx: +1.27

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.76
GSAx: +1.76

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:59Penalty
1st 11:30Penalty
1st 18:36Penalty
1st 19:40Rutger McGroarty (1–0)4v5 · medium · 25 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 5:58Goal (2–0)medium · 27 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 11:21Penalty
3rd 12:39Penalty
3rd 16:21Juraj Pekarcik (2–1)high · 9 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 17:08Penalty