Coachella Valley Firebirds at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Coachella Valley Firebirds

2:3

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

CVCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

62%38%

xG: 2.92.3
High danger: 53
Chances: 108
Shots: 2626

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal26

10Scoring chances8

5High-danger chances3

2.90Expected goals2.33

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–7	4–1	2–0	1.2–0.4
2nd	9–12	3–5	1–2	0.8–1.5
3rd	9–7	3–2	2–1	0.9–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.89
GSAx: +0.89

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.33
GSAx: -0.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:29Penalty
1st 4:13Jagger Firkus (1–0)medium · 15 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 16:55Penalty
1st 16:55Penalty
2nd 2:30Ville Ottavainen (2–0)low · 67 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 6:45Bryan Yoon (2–1)low · 61 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 7:42Penalty
2nd 8:57Tristen Nielsen (2–2)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 11:53Gavin Brindley (2–3)low · 21 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 12:08Penalty
2nd 12:08Penalty
3rd 0:44Penalty
3rd 5:17Penalty