Toronto Marlies at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Toronto Marlies

3:4

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

TORROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

51%49%

xG: 2.52.5
High danger: 43
Chances: 119
Shots: 2726

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal26

11Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances3

2.55Expected goals2.55

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–12	3–5	1–1	0.7–1.4
2nd	9–11	2–4	2–2	0.7–1.0
3rd	10–3	6–0	1–0	1.1–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: -0.45

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: -1.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:14Penalty
1st 9:29Penalty
1st 17:54Penalty
1st 17:54Penalty
1st 17:54Penalty
1st 18:48Isak Rosén (0–1)5v4 · medium · 42 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 0:58Penalty
2nd 1:05Isak Rosén (0–2)5v4 · high · 30 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 1:23Penalty
2nd 1:23Penalty
2nd 1:23Penalty
2nd 1:23Penalty
2nd 1:23Penalty
2nd 5:54Tyler Kopff (0–3)low · 34 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 10:56Borya Valis (1–3)high · 8 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 13:57Brendan Warren (1–4)medium · 21 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 18:45Logan Shaw (2–4)high · 9 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 5:39Borya Valis (3–4)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 7:06Penalty
3rd 7:06Penalty
3rd 7:06Penalty
3rd 9:09Penalty
3rd 9:09Penalty
3rd 14:25Penalty